Strange rumblings from the deep south

The appointment of an independent director should normally be an uncontroversial exercise, but Alliance Group has run into some public relations problems, as it seeks to find a successor to its previous chairman, Owen Poole.

Moment of truth for MIE and its board candidates

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In the seven months since MIE’s first farmer meeting in Gore, there have been more meetings, discussions with meat companies and, most recently, nominations for the boards of Silver Fern Farms and Alliance Group. Meat companies have tried and failed to find an acceptable solution to the problems raised by MIE.

Doubtful if changing of the guard will bring change of direction

When Eoin Garden retires as Silver Fern Farms’ chairman at the AGM in December, both cooperatives will have had a change at the top within three months of each other. So the big question is whether this will make any difference to the way they operate: will there be a significant change of culture and leadership from the top or will it be much the same as before?

End of an era for southern cooperatives

Alliance Group chairman Owen Poole retired at the end of September after five years on the board and 15 in top management roles, while Eoin Garden, Silver Fern Farms’ chairman since 2007 is retiring at the AGM in December.

Drought hammers stock numbers and puts pressure on procurement prices

Last summer’s drought has badly affected breeding numbers and next season’s lamb and beef cattle numbers. The far north’s ewe population was particularly heavily hit, while the breeding cow herd in the Taranaki – Manawatu region was 11% down purely because of the drought.

Balance sheets under stress from lower livestock numbers

After the discussions between meat companies, lobbying by MIE, conferences and strategy debates, right now an eerie calm has settled over the meat industry. This is partly due to the mid winter slowdown in processing activity with only bobby calves to get excited about.

Not sure it’s realistic for farmers to own the meat industry

There is a lot of noise about the dysfunctional or broken meat industry accompanied by the suggestion it would be solved if farmers owned a bigger slice of it.

 

The Meat Industry Excellence group has been touring the country since earlier this year, holding farmer meetings and trying to drum up support for fixing the industry’s problems. In total some 3,000 farmers attended meetings from Gore to Gisborne which, even if every attendee was firmly in support, only represents a maximum of 20% of sheep and beef farmers.

MIE may be sailing into a head wind

The Meat Industry Excellence (MIE) group has appointed businessman and former sheep and beef farmer Ross Hyland to set up an establishment team, as it ramps up its campaign to achieve a restructure of the red meat sector.

 

After a series of meetings round the country at which it gained plenty of farmer support for its campaign, as well as backing from Beef & Lamb NZ and Federated Farmers, MIE has decided that it is now time to inject some muscle and structure into its plans. Chairman Richard Young said last week they had made this decision to ensure that they have an agreed solution and plan ready for the start of next season.

 

This is in spite of the confidential discussions between the four largest meat companies which have not yet reached a conclusion, but next season is only three months away on 1 October. MIE has talked to all the main meat companies and appears to have no desire to pre-empt the outcome of those discussions, but wants to try and make sure things don’t drag on well into next season without any progress.

 

MIE has now reduced its goal of having 80% of the meat industry combined in farmer ownership to a more realistic 60%, although it is still very doubtful how this will be achieved. Another major goal to have all livestock supply on contract to one processor has also been replaced by a commitment to supply stock to specification. The goal of transparency and fair treatment for all suppliers remains a key plank of the programme, while the costs of restructuring are to be shared by all industry stakeholders including the Government, except unions.

 

This is still a very optimistic wish list. It is uncertain just what a farmer owned trading entity with 60% market share would achieve, even if the necessary mergers and acquisitions happened. It leaves 40% of the industry in non farmer hands with almost certainly stronger balance sheets and more capacity for innovation and productivity improvement. My impression is that MIE’s original desire was to sort out the state of the sheep meat sector, but the board has now decided beef must be included, if the plan is to work.

 

With a maximum of 40% of sheep and beef farmers attending the meetings, this still means 60% didn’t attend, although some of those may support the objectives. It also ignores dairy farmers who provide around 40% of the industry’s cattle supply. A dairy farmer’s only thoughts with his cull cows are to get them off the farm as soon as possible and to receive a fair price for them.

 

A former livestock manager’s opinion of cull cows was that it’s the only time dairy farmers can behave like capitalists, because everything else is handled by the cooperative. So it’s hard to see how MIE can expect the meat companies, some of which specialise in grinding beef, to change their procurement methods for this part of their business.

 

I sympathise with MIE’s intentions, as well as the efforts to achieve progress before the start of the season. But realistically there will be no industry restructure in three months. There is currently no indication any of the meat processors are yet in serious financial trouble which reduces the likelihood of a Weddel or Fortex type of event in the near future.

 

Nor can I see the Government wanting to get involved in forcing a restructure of an industry, none of it state owned, which is completely exposed to commercial forces including the value of the New Zealand dollar and international commodity prices.

 

MIE says it will seek any required legislation which I presume could mean trying to enforce any of the following measures: merger of the coops, Silver Fern Farms and Alliance, sale into the farmer owned entity of one or more companies to reach the target market share, mandatory livestock supply contracts to specified meat companies, and a moratorium on any new meat plants or additional shift capacity.

 

What on earth would the Commerce Commission say about all that?

 

 

Tradable slaughter rights idea useful but may not be the answer

The Tradable Slaughter Rights concept, raised by me several weeks ago and promoted last week by Mike Petersen, was first proposed by Pappas, Carter, Evans and Koop in 1985. But its purpose was specifically to solve the problem of an industry that consisted of a lot of weak competitors with little innovation or variation in killing charges. The report identified excess costs between farmgate and shipside of $100 million or 8%.

Fixed price contracts not the answer

When farmers want certainty of income and livestock prices aren’t very good, thoughts often turn to fixed price contracts. But they have never really taken off because I suspect neither farmers nor meat exporters are very keen on them, although Silver Fern Farms continues to offer its Backbone contracts with reasonable uptake.