Brexit impact to drag on and on

Any hopes Brexit would be sorted this year are receding further into the distance with every new twist and there’s a strong chance the situation will have changed again by the time you read this. For obvious reasons I won’t make firm predictions about the likely outcome, because it’s impossible to predict which of several will eventuate, but it is possible to assess the long and short term risk factors for New Zealand exporters who must get on regardless with securing orders and satisfying customers.

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No need to panic over Brexit

In spite of the fast approaching deadline of 29^th March, when the UK is due to leave the EU, not to mention the latest shipment date able to meet that deadline, there may be no need to get too concerned. There is a huge amount of media-inspired speculation about the potentially dire consequences of Prime Minister May’s inability to achieve an improvement of the exit terms leading to a No Deal Brexit, but word from Britain suggests this is highly unlikely. After all, both the EU and the British Parliament have specifically ruled out leaving without a deal.

That was 2018 – now for 2019

2018 is over and it’s now timely to look at how many of last year’s key challenges will continue into the New Year.

 

From a New Zealand domestic perspective the attempt to eradicate Mycoplasma Bovis has had the biggest impact on farming, most of it focused on the relatively small number of properties forced to cull their entire herd, some of it directed at those properties under surveillance or Notice of Direction, and some of it on the agricultural service industry, including meat processors, cartage contractors, stock agents and saleyards, as well as calf clubs and A&P shows.

Reflections on the year that was

2018 is nearly over and it’s now time to reflect on what were the most notable events and issues of the year. It is also time to think about the implications for the future.

My tips for 2018

It’s the time of year for making predictions, some of which may turn out to be close to the mark, but most, like horse racing tips or economists’ forecasts, will end up looking slightly silly, if anybody takes the trouble to remember what they were. The luxury of writing a column is the ability to speculate without being held to account for any inaccuracies.

European Meat Sector issues dire warning about impact of hard Brexit

The European Livestock and Meat Trades Union (UECBV), the body that represents producers, consumers and distributors of meat, has commissioned a report entitled The EU Meat Industry in a hard Brexit scenario – CRISIS. The major finding of the report concludes the impact of a hard Brexit would be a catastrophic disaster for both UK and Europe because of the reversion to WTO tariff arrangements.

Brexit problems proliferate while negotiators procrastinate

An Agri Brigade piece in the latest Private Eye, that marvellous example of good old-fashioned investigative journalism, made me acutely aware of the law of unintended consequences that inevitably applies to trade agreements. With less than 18 months until Brexit, UK negotiators don’t appear to have made any tangible progress towards a workable agreement with their EU counterparts.

Irish Farmers seek government intervention

Just in case we thought European agriculture had changed its spots, there is some news out of the Republic of Ireland which has caught my attention. The President of the Irish Farmers Association has beseeched the Irish Minister of Agriculture to prevent cuts to the prices being paid for beef by the processors. To this point I have seen no reaction from the Minister, although it’s difficult to imagine he can do very much without contravening the EU’s common agricultural policy which of course will involve farmer subsidies of some sort.

EU – Japan trade deal ups the ante

The FTA announced just before the G20 meeting in Hamburg is touted to bring substantial benefits to EU agricultural producers. It will put EU exporters on a level playing field with countries like Australia which already have an agreement, but notably it will put New Zealand at an even greater disadvantage until our trade negotiators can achieve a similar outcome.

British agricultural report sees NZ as model for the future

A recently published report entitled The Future is Another Country by British consulting firm, Ferguson Cardo, attempts to describe a positive picture of post Brexit Britain, using the example of New Zealand in the 1980s as proof of what is possible. The authors base their hypothesis on certain key events, including the removal of subsidies, dismantling the producer boards’ funding model and compulsory acquisition rights, and a refocus away from the UK towards Asia.